World Population Outlook
Projected based on current fertility, mortality & migration trends
Continental Breakdown
Population dynamics by region
Country Explorer
Detailed demographic projections per country
Compare Countries
Side-by-side demographic comparison — up to 6 countries
Rankings
Countries ranked by projected demographic metrics
| # | Country | Region | Pop. 2024 | Pop. Projected | Change | TFR | Life Exp. | Visual |
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Methodology
PopuTrend projections use a mechanistic cohort-flow model calibrated to real-world demographic data from the UN World Population Prospects, World Bank, and CIA World Factbook. The model projects forward year-by-year from 2024 baseline data for 133 countries.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is projected using each country's current trend, modified by demographic transition theory: high-fertility countries experience accelerating decline (modernization pressure), while very-low-fertility countries see trend stabilization near observed floors (~0.7 children/woman).
- Life expectancy gains follow diminishing returns as countries approach biological limits (~95 years), with initial trends reduced by a cubic decay function.
- Age structure evolves mechanistically via 3 cohorts (0–14, 15–64, 65+) with natural flows: each year 1/15 of children age into working age, 1/50 of working-age adults age into elderly. Births enter the young cohort, deaths are removed from each cohort based on age-specific mortality rates derived from life expectancy. No artificial convergence targets — the age pyramid emerges naturally from fertility, mortality, and aging.
- Births are calibrated relative to each country's 2024 baseline and scale naturally with changes in TFR and the size of the working-age population (which determines the number of women of childbearing age).
- Deaths use age-specific mortality rates derived from life expectancy: child mortality, working-age mortality, and elderly mortality (based on remaining life expectancy at 65). A per-country calibration factor ensures year-0 deaths match actual data.
- Net migration uses each country's current rate (per 1000 population), applied to the working-age cohort, with gradual moderation for extreme values.
Limitations: This is a trend-extrapolation model, not a full stochastic projection. It does not account for wars, pandemics, sudden policy changes, or climate-driven displacement. Real-world outcomes will differ. For authoritative projections, consult the UN Population Division.